Political cycles of civilization

Founder and CEO of an American private intelligence-analytical company “Stratfor” George Friedman in his speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in 2015, indirectly explained the difference between the essence of European colonial civilization and Russian, so to say, peaceful civilization. Colonial civilization can’t control the colony troops because of the overwhelming superiority of the number of colony’s population over the number of colonial troops. Therefore the colonizers control their colonies through the collision of the colonial populations with each other. We should note that George Friedman in his speech referred to the experience of the Englishmen and couldn’t refer to a similar experience in the history of Russian civilization because of its absence. The link of an American to Englishmen also reminds us, what the country has been a leader of the European civilization, and which country is its leader now. now.

European civilization began the formation of the colonies from the XV century, when the era of the great geographical discoveries began. At the same time begins the expansion of the Moscow principality, from which emerged the modern Russian civilization. In contrast to the European civilization, Russian one doesn’t make the territories of its influence the colonies and doesn’t conduct there colonial policy. An indicative feature of the policy pursued by the Russian civilization is voluntary accession of the indigenous peoples to it. For example, already in the XVI century Bashkir tribes voluntarily joined Russia. If the European civilization fuels conflicts, the Russian civilization in contrary comes to where conflicts are, in order to eliminate them, and thereby expands. So it was, for example, in the Caucasus, when Georgia claimed its wish to become a part of Russia in the XVIII century.

The quality of Russian civilization and its difference from the European one is indicated, for example, by the indignation of Russian public at the words of a well-known American journalist Michael Bohm, who often appears on Russian television, that if the Americans had not killed the Indians, there would be no America. For Russian people such an approach, which is native to the American journalist, is contrary to the fundamentals of the Russian world and Russian truth planted in the days of Kievan Rus.

Differences between Russian and European civilizations are seen in the comparison of quality of presence of Russian and NATO troops in Afghanistan. For the Russian soldiers it was normal to go for cigarettes in an Afghan village. At night they could sit up in a local shop, playing “fool” and singing yard songs with guitar. In this example, we see the manifestation of the qualities of Russian civilization, which allowed it to integrate itself into a number of large and small nations. For NATO troops a visit to an Afghan village is always a special operation. Humvees with machine guns on the roofs block the street, commandos armed to the teeth come into the shop, throw $20 for cigarettes and cola, not counting them, and reporting on the radio, go away. The troops of the European civilization behave like strangers outside Europe. The territory becomes “their own” for them only after the destruction of the local population, as it happened in North America. Russians act as insiders. Of course, there are exceptions, but they are stopped by the standards adopted in the Russian civilization.

Russians were building, schools, hospitals and roads in Afghanistan. What do the NATO troops do in Afghanistan? It is clear that they prepare the bases for an attack on Iran, and also control the production of heroin. I think that the purpose of the last action is not a special secret for anybody. Europeans want to repeat the success of the Opium Wars, by which medieval China was defeated. George Friedman doesn’t speak about it, but it’s quite easy to imagine such a revelation.

Proceeding from the colonial essence of European civilization and anti-colonial essence of Russian civilization, we can assume the existence of related interaction cycles between them. European aggression starts the related cycle, suggesting that it will achieve another conquest, only this time in relation to Russian civilization. But for Russian civilization instability is the food for the expansion of its borders. Thus, the cycle ends with the expansion of Russian pacification and the boundaries of Russian civilization. Things went this way after Napoleon’s attack on Russia in 1812 and Hitler’s one in 1941.

Let us consider in more details the related cycle passing through the Second World War. Three stages are seen in it. The preliminary stage of the duration of 7 years started after the Civil War in Russia in 1922 with the Genoa Conference (see Article “The Two Main Causes of the Second World War in Europe”). In the second phase lasting 11 years the building of a pyramid of anti-Russian policy was conducted. Its beginning is marked by active support of the European elite of Hitler in 1929. The step of sobriety and the collapse of the pyramid took place April 9, 1940, after the start of Hitler’s European blitzkrieg and ended May 9, 1945 with the victory over Nazi Germany and lasted 5 years.

By the nature of building an anti-Russian hysteria in the present time, we can relate it to the second stage of the previous related of Russian and European civilizations and this way to make some forecasts. On the basis of the nature of building anti-Russian policy, it can be concluded that the phase of building a pyramid of anti-Russian policy ended at the election of Donald Trump, lasted for 17 years, and now began the stage of its collapse began. Thus, the current cycle is slightly longer than the previous cycle of the years 1922-1945. Its preliminary stage begins in 1991 with the collapse of the USSR and lasts 8 years before the NATO’s bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999. As in the previous cycle, at the second stage a defined strategy directed against Russia is conducted. If the previous strategy was associated with the support for Hitler, with “appeasement” of him toward the Soviet Union, the current strategy is the sequential destruction of the countries friendly to Russia. After Yugoslavia there were Afghanistan – 2001, Iraq – 2003, Georgia – 2008, Egypt – 2011, Libya – 2011, Syria – 2011, and Ukraine – 2014.

A longer current cycle can be explained by the fact that the means in the previous cycle were concentrated in one place, in Germany, and this time they are scattered over a vast area. The negative consequences of carrying out the current European strategy are less obvious in comparison with the Nazi invasion of Western Europe in 1940. For example, after last year’s terrorist attack on Paris, French President Francois Holland had a desire to join the Russian coalition at war against terrorists in Syria, but he didn’t do it. Russia’s reaction to the events listed before 2014 was passive, with the exception of 2008, when Russia intervened decisively in the events in Georgia.

Since 2014 in connection with the active resistance of Russia the building of a more rigorous and steep pyramid began. We remember the resistance of European politicians to sanctions against Russia, initiated by the United States, and only the provocation with the collapse of Boeing over Ukraine managed to break it. By the elections of US President the pyramid reached its maximum development, after the elections and the announcement of the results its collapse began. This short period can be compared with the period in the previous cycle between the conclusion of a nonaggression pact with Germany, signed on August 23, 1939, and the beginning of European Blitzkrieg on April 9, 1940 (the Soviet-Finnish War is also included into this period of time).

At the heart of the growth of the political pyramid growth lies the reproduction of political mistakes. The wrong strategy, which initially seems to be attractive, makes a pyramid grow. Then, at some point of time, the falsehood of adopted strategy becomes apparent, and the pyramid begins to crumble. Thus, one can imagine the entire political history of mankind as the growth and destruction of the political pyramids, and, ultimately, as the process of getting rid of errors and the search for truth – the best social system.

The sequence of coups of all kinds, arranged by European civilization since 1999, can be considered a recurrence of the old crumbling pyramid of colonial policy. Most likely, we are now observing its last surge. On the basis of the duration of the third phase of the previous related cycle and the global consequences of its termination it’s possible to say that the next 5-8 years will be decisive for the history of Europe and Russia as well as for the history of the world. During this period, in Europe the leaders will come to power, who together with Russia will start building democratic peace in the Middle East and Africa. The democratic world in the sense that the Europeans will begin to recognize democracy as an alternative to civil war not only in Europe, but throughout the rest of the world, instead of unleashing civil wars under the pretext of the struggle for democracy, i.e., instead of fighting with democracy.

Meanwhile, Russia experiences its own development cycles. The cycle which began with the growth of Moscow principality (let’s denote this date by the year 1480, the year of liberation from the Mongol-Tatar yoke), ended with the February revolution of 1917. Then begins the Soviet historical cycle, which ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The change of the situation in Europe should also lead to fundamental changes in the post-Soviet space. There the life of the liberal pyramid that originated after the collapse of the USSR should be over. Now for most people the unsustainability of this project is already evident. Liberalism is a reflection of the colonial policy and contradicts the anti-colonial essence of Russian civilization. Now the current pyramid of Russian authorities resists yet, citing the fact that the nationalization and investigation of privatization crimes can lead to stronger sanctions from the West. But with the change of the situation in Europe, this argument will be lost, and there will be open the way for reforms of the Russian power.

Changes in Russia and Europe should lead to the death of radical Islam in the Middle East. If we look at historical information, we will see that Wahhabism emerged as a reaction to British colonial policy. Thus, with the death of colonialism, radical Islam must die too.

In his book “Guns, Germs and Steel” Jared Diamond showed where to look for the basic error of civilization. For the error which is included in all the political pyramids. For the error that gave rise to the whole history of the politics. Jared Diamond has shown that political power is a response to the growing inability of the society to resolve internal conflicts by means of moral and ethical rules. In turn, the generated power is subjected to corruption – it begins to solve its own problems, instead of solving the problems of the society. The described problem, let’s call it “the main problem of power”, suggests a way of solving it. The power should primarily focus on the development of morality and ethics, and then, as a result of their development, the need for institutions of power will be minimum.

Let’s briefly discuss how the said problem was solved in the history of Europe and Russia. Let’s start with the fact that in the decaying Roman Empire emerged Christian ethics. It gave birth to the medieval system of states, in which the church was responsible for the development of morality. During the colonial period, which comes to the end, but is not yet complete, liberal ethics was born, where the church is replaced by the law. In its framework an indulgence for any immoral actions is received automatically after the verdict – “it’s legal”. The freedom issued by liberalism for any immoral action, even related to the death of people, gives us the right to call liberal ethic “fascist” one. The Soviet period gave rise to Soviet ethics, in the development of which the Communist Party was engaged.

With the end of European colonial policy, which will simultaneously mean the end of the liberal ethics, the civilization will be able to gradually begin addressing the main problem of power. This will mean the onset of a new political era.

Despite this optimistic forecast, we should remember that after the collapse of the European pyramid in the previous related cycle already a year later, on June 22, 1941, united Europe attacked the USSR. For the victory of May 9, 1945, Russian civilization had to bear the greatest sacrifices in its history. Thanks God, the current struggle between the European pyramid of power and Russian civilization is mostly information. Nevertheless, the victory won’t fall into our hands itself. We’ll have to fight for it.

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