Letter to a friend about the fate of the world

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A friend has sent me a link to an interview with Ilya Ponomarev (you can read it here), to which I wrote the following reply:

Ponomarev, like Obama, is trying to hold onto a departing train. None of things he described will happen. Ponomarev paints a picture from some minor offenses (he would have done better, and another one was appointed, who stole everything). It’s necessary to look globally at the world and to see the global challenges, in solving of which everyone is interested. Trifles, about which Ilya speaks, will be solved anyway.

The development of the world is going step by step. To go to the next stage of development, it is necessary to solve the current problems. To date, the main task of mankind is a victory of democracy as a mechanism for resolving human conflicts without civil wars. Thanks God, after the Second World War and the emergence of nuclear weapons, only civil wars drink our blood, in which global players play for different parties. The change of the situation in the world will be connected with the change in the behavior of the global players, and the spread in the colonies of the knowledge that bad peace is better than a civil war. In this regard, I see a lot of progress in the collapse of the sect of the global players (colonialists), who saw a solution to their interests through the organization of civil wars, and in the minds of the colonial population.

For example, in Moscow until 2014 the Liberals could actually collect a million people ready to jump like fleas near the Kremlin wall. After 2014 the people realized how it all could end, and now only single freaks wielding imaginary posters come to liberal actions. The same progress has been made in all the countries of the former Soviet Union, where there are no civil wars. I think that this idea made its way into all similar in all countries of the Third World. Colombia is a bright example. States with the interference in the internal affairs of other countries have been the main driving force of colonial policy. Trump has announced its completion. For the US, it is the release of huge resources. Therefore the sect of colonialists will fall. The fact that it is beneficial, I hope, is clear. For example, in Syria, Libya, Iraq, people recently lived very well. It was a significant market for Western goods, and not a source of refugees. After the fall of the colonialists sect residues in Europe the main leitmotif of world politics (in which Russia, Europe and the United States will participate) in the next 5 years will be to restore peace in the Middle East, Ukraine, Afghanistan and Africa.

Changes in Russia. Its main problem is the economic policy of export of natural resources. At its core, it is colonial. Business owners need to increase profits, to do business with steady despite of decline in global commodity prices and, hence, reduce costs, the costs of labor of Russians. On the one hand, this model will not meet future global problem of world politics, and on the other, it no longer corresponds to the representation of the Russian population about the good life. So there is a revolutionary situation, which should lead to a change in economic policy. Obviously, this change will lead to a change in economic policy in the entire post-Soviet space. I think that after building a new economic policy Russia will again become a model for the transition from a colonial policy to economic development policy, and that after the consolidation of the Russian economy the union with Europe will be waiting for us.

P.S. My friend answered to my letter, that Ponomarev had his own truth. To which the following answer was given:
“As for the fact that everyone has his own truth, people have long come up with a way to select one or the other point of view. For example, it can be said that the Sun revolves around the Earth and that the Earth revolves around the Sun. Both things will be true. The first point of view is obvious. We see every day, as the Sun rises in the east and sets in the West. The second is not obvious. But the first picture of the world makes it flat, and the second gives the volume and allows you to go into space, ie, it adds a degree of freedom to us and contributes to progress.”

P.P.S. Alas, progress is not only the purchase but also losses. In the history of the transition from the point of view that it’s the Earth that revolves around the Sun and not vice versa, there was a loss of accuracy of forecasts. The fact is that in the history of a flat picture of the world there were many hundreds of years of observations, which resulted in accurate statistics table. Three-dimensional picture of the world could not boast it and its predictions were less accurate. As you can see, the accuracy of the forecasts is not a criterion of truth. Unaccounted stuff is just small stuff. Much more important is the truth of the development strategy.

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