The Threat of Digital Transparency

A Thought Experiment:

Digital Transparency will occur when AI and Quantum Computing evolve to become mainstream for all kinds of data processing

Soon the exponential development of artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing will make any form of digital privacy, security, password protection, encryption, TEMPEST, etc., obsolete. When they do, society will be confronted with absolute transparency. All data will be open, from bank accounts to secret services. A society where only your thoughts remain secure. As the old German song says: “Die Gedanken Sind Frei” (Thoughts Are Free).

This thought experiment touches on some fundamental aspects of human society and the potential impact of truly disruptive technologies. It hinges on two key future developments:

Radically Evolved AI: An AI that surpasses current capabilities to such an extent that it can effortlessly break any digital security measure.
Mainstream Quantum Computing: Quantum computers with the power to solve problems currently intractable with classical computers, including complex encryption algorithms.

If these two developments come to pass, the result may be that current digital safeguards become obsolete. Encryption, password protection, and even TEMPEST shielding (protecting against electromagnetic emanations) would likely be rendered ineffective against such powerful tools.

The Consequence: Absolute Transparency

The next logical step is “absolute transparency”. Every digital trace of our lives – financial records, personal communications, government secrets, medical histories – would be potentially accessible. The digital walls we’ve built around our information would crumble.

The Core Question: Return to a “Primitive” Analog Society?

Would absolute digital transparency drive us back towards a primitive society? A fundamentally analog society? Or would a more plausible outcome be the emergence of a hybrid society? One where sensitive data is strategically moved away from completely open and transparent digital clouds into a hybrid format of analog and secure offline environments.

Here is a possible line of reasoning:

Loss of Trust: If all digital interactions are inherently insecure, the trust that underpins digital systems would erode. Why conduct financial transactions online if your accounts are open? Why communicate digitally if your messages are public?
Shift to Analog Alternatives: People might revert to more physical, less traceable forms of interaction. Cash transactions could become dominant again. Face-to-face communication might increase in importance for sensitive matters. Physical documents and records could see a resurgence.
Decline of Digital Infrastructure: The very infrastructure that supports our digital lives might become less tenable if its security is compromised. Investment in and reliance on these systems could decrease.

Here’s how this hybrid society might manifest itself:

Resurgence of Analog Storage for Sensitive Information: Physical documents, offline storage devices, and face-to-face communication could become the preferred methods for handling highly sensitive data. Think of important legal documents, crucial business strategies, or deeply personal information being kept in secure, non-networked locations.
Development of Advanced Analog Security: Just as digital security evolved, we might see innovations in analog security. This could involve sophisticated physical encryption methods, advanced materials science for creating tamper-proof documents, or even new forms of secure, non-digital communication.
Hybrid Data Management Systems: Organizations and individuals might adopt hybrid systems where non-sensitive data resides in the open cloud for accessibility and efficiency. Meanwhile sensitive information would be segregated into secure, offline vaults or heavily protected, localized networks.
“Dark Data” and Unrecorded Interactions: There might be a deliberate move towards minimizing digital footprints for certain types of interactions. Unrecorded verbal agreements, cash transactions, and activities that leave no digital trace could become more common for matters requiring privacy.
Focus on the Unquantifiable: Value might shift towards things that are inherently difficult to digitize and therefore less susceptible to absolute transparency, such as personal skills, tacit knowledge, and genuine human connection.
Societal Norms and Trust: New social norms and trust frameworks might emerge to navigate this era of transparency. Emphasis could be placed on ethical behavior and the understanding that even if data can be accessed, there are strong social disincentives against doing so without legitimate reason.

Science Fiction Examples Reflecting this Hybrid Approach:

While the exact scenario of AI and quantum computing breaking encryption leading to a hybrid analog/offline solution might be niche, some science fiction touches on elements of this idea:

“Snow Crash” (1992) by Neal Stephenson: This novel features a blend of a highly digital “Metaverse” and a more chaotic, analog “Real World.” While not directly about escaping digital transparency, it shows a society operating in both digital and physical realms with different rules and levels of security.
“The Second Sleep” (2019) by Robert Harris: 1,500 years after the end of the digital age, the world is once again a medieval kingdom, complete with scribes and stonemasons. The church is the keeper of history’s secrets and the mysteries of what happened are slowly unearthed.
Cyberpunk: This subgenre of science fiction often depicts a world where powerful digital networks exist alongside individuals and groups who operate in the shadows. They survive using a mix of low-tech and highly specialized, often physically secured, technology to protect their secrets.
Stories where “off-grid” living or secure, isolated communities are prevalent often explore the idea of deliberately stepping outside the transparent digital world for privacy and security.

Conclusion:

The prospect of absolute digital transparency driven by advanced AI and quantum computing presents a significant challenge to our current way of life. However, a complete reversion to a primitive state seems unlikely. Instead, a more realistic scenario involves the development of a hybrid society. In this future, we would likely see a strategic retreat of sensitive data into more secure analog and offline environments. Coupled with the evolution of new security measures and societal norms, we would learn to navigate a world where digital information is inherently more exposed.